A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
